Week 11 Picks

Cinncinatti (-3) over Arizona - Not that tough a pick. No one expects Arizona to be able to win on the road, and we keep waiting for the Bengals offense to show up. Stay away from this one, but I do expect Cinncinatti to cover.

Cleveland (-3) over Baltimore - Kyle Boller will get a shot for Baltimore, which is actually a pretty big upgrade over Steve McNair. The Browns put up 28 on Pittsburgh, but actually had an extremely poor day on offense. They only scored due to excellent field position provided by their special teams. So this isn't the slam dunk pick it appears, but there's no way I'm going with Baltimore after watching what they've done the last two weeks.

Dallas (-10.5) over Washington - I keep waiting for the Cowboys to come back to Earth, but I don't think Jason Garrett is going to let up on the offense, which will hopefully keep them sharp the entire year. I hate picking the Cowboys vs. the Skins, it seems like weird things happen, especially when they play in DC, but I think these teams are headed in different directions. I'm also not even a little bit scared of Jason Campbell.

Green Bay (-9.5) over Carolina - Don't be fooled by the record. Carolina is horrible. Vinny is starting. I've only known one Vinny in my lifetime, and I wasn't impressed.

New Orleans (+1) over Houston - New Orleans is actually getting points after that abomination vs. St. Louis last week. Grab it! Andre Johnson is back for the Texans, and he was playing like the best reciever in the league earlier this year. There is no telling how good he'll be in his first game back, but he is a game-breaker when healthy. That said, I expect the Saints to come out motivated and get back in the win column.

Jacksonville (-3) over San Diego - Who knows. The Jaguars just win, they are at home, and they get back David Garrard, who was one of the top-rated QBs in the league before his injury. San Diego is coming off the ugliest win of the season (narrowly edging Dallas' squeaker vs. the Bills), as they took advantage of 6 Manning interceptions and basically did nothing. Darren Sproles scored 14 of their 23 points on kick and punt returns. So they would have lost the game without a career game from Sproles, or had Adam Vinatieri, a Hall of Fame kicker, had been able to hit a 29 yarder at the end of the 4th quarter.

Oakland (+5) over Minnesota - Tarvaris Jackson is back. That's why I'm picking the Raiders.

Buffalo (+16) over New England - Tough game to call. JP Losman will be starting, which doesn't really matter in my book (Edwards is steadier, Losman makes more big plays). I can tell you Lee Evans prefers Losman. The Patriots have of course been absolutely murdering everyone in the league, but this will be played in front of a nasty Bills crowd in nasty upstate-NY weather (wind, sleet, rain, snow all expected). I just feel like the Patriots are due to fall off, and after watching what happened to the Cowboys up here, this is as good a week as any.

Detroit (+3) over NY Giants - I covered the fraudulent Giants last week. Lions are at home. Ride it.

Miami (+9.5) over Philadelphia - I guess I have to keep on picking Miami until they break through. They pushed last week, in a game they should have won vs. Buffalo. Philly is eternally on the edge of destruction, and this seems like a perfect game for them to implode in. They'll probably come off of a loss to the Dolphins by rocking the Patriots next week. So they are undependable, but they are dependable to be undependable.

Pittsburgh (-9) over NY Jets - Great win by the Steelers last week, in a game they essentially dominated, but still had to come from behind to win. Roethlisberger has been on another level the last few weeks. Of course, the Jets have been on a hideous level this entire season.

Chicago (+5.5) over Seattle - Easy pick. The Bears are back with Dirty Rex, and Seattle is average at best. The Bears are going to the playoffs.

St. Louis (-3) over San Francisco - There's a chance that Trent Dilfer will spark the 49ers, as its clear that the entire organization has lost confience in Alex Smith (though they should never have tried to stick Smith in a conventional NFL offense anyway). All the same, I'm going with the Rams who have all their playmakers back, even though its too late to salvage a lost season. They absolutely put in on the Saints last week. I think they'll manage to beat one of the worst teams in the league by more than 3.

Atlanta (+3) over Tampa Bay - Tough game. I don't know whether it will be Leftwich or Harrington for the Lions, but i think the Bucs have lost too much to keep on winning. Petrino just might be turning a few of the veterans back to his side in Atlanta and he clearly has support of the ownershp. If he can evaluate talent in the draft well, they'll do fine in a couple of years.

Tennessee (+2) over Denver - Bounce back game for the Titans. They are a better team than Denver top to bottom and they need the win more, as they are in a much tougher division. Plus Jay Cutler sucks.