Week 9: Friday Picks

Time to pick the Week 9 picks. We'll obviously be picking against betting lines, not so much fun just picking straight up. Home teams in bold.

Detroit (+1) over Arizona. Obviously I'm riding the Lions wave. Scoring 44 points on an average Denver team was still impressive, and I fully expect them to win straight up. The Cardinals have lost three straight, and the offense hasn't scored more than 19 points in a month. Detroit will have that by the 3rd quarter.

Cinnciantti (+3.5) over Baltimore. Cinncinatti has obviously been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this year, but one of their two wins was 27-20 over the Ravens in week 1. Usually you always take the home team when a team in a tailspin comes to play, but did you SEE the Ravens on Monday night? Steve McNair literally can not throw the ball 10 yards. No way am I putting my eggs in his basket.

Miami (+3) over Buffalo. It's been a rough season for the Dolphins, but they do have a few things going for them. First, they are coming off of a bye week, giving them an additional week to scheme for the Bills. Second they are at home, and I haven't taken a home team yet. Third, no one goes 0-16, and the Bills are fresh off of a 3 game winning streak, and are bound to fall back to Earth.

Atlanta (+4.5) over Carolina. Hideous game. Hideous teams. Carolina is 0-3 at home. Atlanta is 0-4 on the road. Someone's dream season is coming to an end. And yes if you are counting, this makes 4 straight underdogs, three of whom are on the road. I'm not happy about it either.

Chicago(-3) over Oakland. Josh McCown is the new quarterback for the Raiders (the wildly overrated JaMarcus Russel continues to kick himself for holding out), but I don't think it's going to make a difference. Chicago still has time to win their way back into the playoffs, but it has to start now.

Dallas (-1.5) over NY Giants. Plenty at stake for both teams, but as I said earlier this week, I think the Cowboys assert dominance in the NFC East this week, and beat the Giants in a hard-fought game.

Green Bay (-6.5) over Minnesota. If this was at Minnesota, I would be picking the Vikings, especially after Adrian Peterson's remarkable performance last week. That said, Green Bay has clearly been the 2nd best team in the NFC. This is an interesting contrast in styles, as the Packers have no running game (despite having ex-Oklahoma State RB Vernand Morency on the roster), and the Vikings have no passing game (due to the horrible combo of Tavaris Jackson and Kelly Holcomb).

Indianapolis (-3) over San Diego. I still can't believe the Cowboys avoided having Norv Turner as our coach. I can't believe Jerry Jones let it go as far as it did, but I forgive him. Wade Phillips has been the coaching hire of the year. In regards to this game, I fully expect the Colts to bounce back after choking away the game againt the Pats. The Chargers are 1-3 on the road thus far and the Colts have both the better offense and defense. There's not really anymore to say. I would have put the line at 6.

Kansas City (-3) over Denver. It's a season on the brink for the Broncos. There is a decent chance Patrick Ramsey will be the starter for the Broncos (which might or might not be an upgrade). But Herman Edwards has built a remarkable team that wins despite their lack of top-end talent. They might even be in first place in their division after a win over the reeling Broncos.

New Orleans (-11) over St. Louis. The season is over for St. Louis, but they still have time to turn it around and get a few wins as Bulger and Jackson come back. This team isn't as bad as 0-8, but they don't have a chance against the Saints who are absolutely on fire.

Cleveland (+10) over Pittsburgh. I really like both teams, but Cleveland is going to be hungry for revenge and Pittsburgh is coming off a short week. The Browns who were humiliated by the Steelers in week 1 are long gone, replaced by a new high-octane offense led by Derek Anderson. I think the Steelers will be able to win at home, but I expect it to be be closer than 10 points.

Jacksonville (+4) over Tennessee. The Titans are due to lose after living on the edge this season. They're meeting their alter-ego in the hard-hitting, hard-running Jaguars. This pick is obviously depenedent on the Jaguars getting David Garrard back, but I expect him to play in a key-divisional game.

Philadelphia (+3) over Washington. I just switched this pick. There's no telling how McNabb will play, but I expect him to bounce back strong. Plus this pick is partly from my heart, as I want the Redskins to lose, giving Dallas a lock on the NFC East.

Seattle (-10) over San Francisco. The 49er's are horrible. The Seahawks aren't excellent, but they're good enough at home.